Arctic Ttemperature Anomaly

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Geomagnetic Field Fz 

The Earth's magnetic field is in a permanent flux, the overall strength of the field has been gradually declining during last 150 years.
South Hemisphere's magnetic field's maximum strength is concentrated in a single area and its decline has been relatively even, while the NH magnetic distribution is more complex, its maximum strength is split between two areas, thousands of miles apart, one is located in the general area of Hudson Bay and the other in the central Siberia, north of Baikal Lake.

                    The average of the two fields is in the area of the Beaufort gyre (see illustration above).
                    GMF data:Institute fur Geophysik, Zurich & NOAA
                    Arctic temperature data : CRUTEM3 HadSST2 0-360 E 66-90N
                    Data for the Arctic temperature and the GMF Z (inverted) are normalised to same scale; correlation of R2 = 0.8933 




The Beaufort Gyre system plays a flywheel role and stabilizes the climate of the entire Arctic region (WHOI). It is not known if the GMF changes are an indicator of the Beaufort Sea  circulation of both warm and cold currents and in turn the ice formation, which is subsequently transported through Fram strait along East Greenland coast.









The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index (AMO), normalised to the Arctic temperature anomaly scale, is added for comparison (AMO smoothed from the Kaplan SST V2, Calculated at NOAA/ESRL/PSD1; by definition trend from the AMO is removed).

Partial correspondence  between the AMO and the other two variables GMFz and the Arctic temperature anomaly is obvious for period 1910 - present . Since the AMO's trend is removed (as calculated) than for a proper comparison it is necessary to remove the rising trend from temperature anomaly and GMF

Direct relationship between GMFz, Arctic temperature anomaly and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index is established, with the GMFz in the lead on the time scale. It should be borne in mind that the AMO was identified in 2001 by Goldenberg et al and since it is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall of the North America and Europe it was reconstructed back to late 1850s,  based on available instrument data .
Note: There is no delay between the Arctic temperature and GMFz. However there is variable delay between the Arctic temperature and the AMO, this is possible due to variable velocity of the Arctic ice drift into the Northern Atlantic.

On the average, it takes ice about 6-10 years (min 6 years) to drift from the Beaufort Sea to the Fram Strait.
Sea ice from the Kara Sea region reaches Fram Strait from 2 to 4 years (min 2 years) on average, while sea ice from the Laptev Sea takes roughly 4 to 6 years (min 3 years) to reach Fram Strait (see the Arctic map above).
Journal of Marine Systems, Volume 48, Issues 1-4, July 2004, Pages 133-157

This is reflected in the optimal correlations calculated for the 3 indices:

Excel calculated correlations:
Arctic temper anomaly - GMFz     R = 0.9434
AMO ( advanced 7 yr ) - GMFz     R = 0.8246

The Fram Strait represents the unique deep water connection between the Arctic Ocean and the rest of the world oceans. Its bathymetry controls the exchange of water masses between the arctic basin and the North Atlantic. The significant heat flux through water mass exchange and sea ice transport, i.e. transport of fresh water and sea ice southwards and transport of warm saline waters northwards, influences the thermohaline circulation at a global scale. Alfred Wegener Institute
Fram Strait is the embryonic AMO index area. Ice flux through the Fram Strait is directly related to the Arctic temperatures some years earlier, when ice was formed in various areas of the Arctic Ocean.
It can be assumed that the northern 'leg' of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is 'driven' by energy release and absorption during the Arctic's ice formation and its later melt in the far reaches of the Northern Atlantic.

Note: Geomagnetic field may be only an indicator but necessarily not the originator of the Arctic temperature change.
One possible explanation for this phenomena could be as outlined below.

"It's amazing how much we can learn about Earth's interior using magnetic field observations," said Dickey.

Their analyses isolated six slow-moving oscillations, or waves of motion, occurring within the liquid core. The oscillations originated at the boundary between Earth's core and its mantle and travelled inward toward the inner core with decreasing strength. Four of these oscillations were robust, occurring at periods of 85, 50, 35 and 28 years. Since the scientist's data set goes back to 1840, the recurrence period of the longest oscillation (85 years) is less well determined than the other oscillations. The last two oscillations identified were weaker and will require further study.

global magnetic field distribution

Global temperature standard deviation from the mean
 'polar amplification'



Stratosphere Influences Winter Weather

Images from NASA animation Stratosphere Influences Winter Weather for Jan-Feb 2010-11-29

NASA: Unprecedented Arctic Ozone Loss in 2011









How does this compare with the CO2 hypothesis?

The highlighted period 1940 -1980 shows:
- highest acceleration in the CO2 emissions
- the Arctic temperatures in record fall

More charts can be found here: Graphs and Formulae

© m.a. vukcevic
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